FCPO Elliot Wave Analysis 20.12.2018

Yesterday, FCPO climbed higher in a decisive manner and derailed our expanded triangle projection into a flat correction. As we go back up to higher timeframe (daily), we could see that the the upper line of the acceleration channel is broken. It is an early indication that wave ④ is currently in progress but we think this could be a brief overshoot before market starts to trade below 2200 again. 

We can quickly brush off the development of wave ④ if

1) FCPO is able to trade within the acceleration channel again

2) The lower channel line of the corrective wave is broken

The above-mentioned EW count is an alternate count should FCPO further develops within the deceleration channel (wave ④) (primary EW count on #analysis #17Nov18)

As market maintains its bullish posture, following are areas of interest

1. 2206 - 2220

2. 2246 - 2260

Disclaimer: This only for education purpose. Not a buy call or sell call from us.

Technical View FCPO 20.12.2018

• Malaysia’s palm oil futures rose more than 2 percent to an eight-week high on Wednesday evening, tracking gains in U.S. soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade and palm oleainon China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange.

• Market is showing more positive sentiment. Seasonal first quarter strength is being aided by strong gains in nearby positions, in spite of expectations that stocks will rise further in Dec, although there were reports of lack of tenderable tank space. Meanwhile reports of drought in some areas of Brazil's soybean belt will also be supportive.

• Technical view - Prices testing strong resistance around 2200. Indicators remain positive. The oversold situation indicated in the stochastic may see some downward correction.

• Technical suggests momentum in short term to medium term has shifted to the upside, eyeing resistance area near 2230 ( using descending trendline ), however signs of overbought appearing with candlestick now in upper boundary while RSI near 70.

• Waiting for a pullback towards a new higher low above 2140 may help to limit losses if prices turns further down, Critical support remains at 2140

Disclaimer: This only for education purpose. Not a buy call or sell call from us.

Technical View FCPO 19.12.2018

• Big gains in nearby positions resulted in forward premium narrowing. There were rumours of unavailability of tank space for tenders, forcing some short coverings. Sentiment is turning positive on seasonal strength from declining production in coming months. However bearish nearby fundamentals, with record high stocks expected in Dec, may cap the upside. Market look likely to trend sideways to higher.

• Technical view - Indicators are positive. The overbought situation indicated in the stochastic may bring some downward correction which should be buy opportunity.

• The final leg of the expanded triangle (wave c of (e)) is developing into a 5-wave structure stretching up to the extreme of upper triangle line, hinting the correction phase is coming to an end. The final subwave of c of (e) may further develop into a rising wedge before FCPO starts to dive in.

• As far as spot month (Mar19) is concerned, the overall correction of wave 4 takes in the form of ending diagonal. 

• It is worth to note that EW invalidation level @ 2137 is violated. It indicates that the next major downtrend may be limited to a certain extent.

• We will see what market offers today.

Disclaimer: This only for education purpose. Not a buy call or sell call from us.

Stock Analysis 19.12.2018 : Nike Inc (NKE, NYSE, US Market)

• Nike is currently trading below the cloud of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. With earning result will out on Thursday, we will expect the positive result from that and Nike can go up to the cloud.

• We expect the short term of Nike will be bullish after the earning result announce this Thursday. The price can go up to upper cloud with target price of 75.97.

• However, please be careful as Nike is still below the cloud which mean its still bearish until the significant signal of bullish already appear.

Disclaimer: This only for education purpose. Not a buy call or sell call from us.

Market Outlook 19.12.2018

Dear all,

Last night, US dives 500 points ahead of FED interest rates decision this coming Wednesday. Donald Trump tweeted his support towards FED raising interest rates. This statement had contradicted with his previous slamming on FED’s action of increasing interest rates.

Market investors and traders are still uncertain on the next move by FED. Many expects FED will increase interest rates on Wednesday, however with slowing down economic growth FED might think twice on increasing interest rates. Also, with recent Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell indicating interest rates are near neutral level.

The KLCI close lower by 6.31 points or 0.38% to close at 1635.31 following US Dow’s drop last night. Losers edge gainers by 699 to 222 while 983 counters remain unchanged. Volume was higher at RM1.8426 billion as compared to at RM1.1739 billion.

Falling crude oil prices have add on some pressure for our local market. Crude oil price fell below the $50 psychological support hinting for further downside to come. $50 crude price is roughly 30% lower than our $70 price used in our budget 2019 estimates. With falling crude oil prices, there will be concern on government’s ability to meet its budget deficit target.

Will there be any year-end rally or the ‘Santa rally’ globally to close the year 2018?

With most of the indices worldwide trading below its 50-100-200 moving averages, we are in doubt of a strong closing on year 2018. Traders and investors are strongly advice to trade with care and be defensive in markets like this.

All the best for a great Wednesday but be cautious as the overall sentiment of our market is bearish.

Market Outlook 18.12.2018

Dear all,

Following the plunge of US Market last Friday, FBMKLCI close lower by 20.34 points or 1.22% to close at 1641.62. Final trading sells off in PBB and Tenaga contributed to the fall. Losers edge gainers by 688 to 179while 1033 counters remain unchanged.

Volume was lower at RM1.1739 billion as compared to at RM1.3724 billion.

Our local bourse continues its downtrend after breaking out of the triangle pattern. Today KLCI close below the previous low support of 1657. Next support for our KLCI is 1615. FBMSCAP is trading at price level not seen since 2013 and for FBM70, it is trading at 2017 low.

As for Asia markets, most of them closed in the positive territory with Nikkei closing 0.62% higher and Shanghai closing higher by 0.16%. HangSeng close marginally lowerby just 0.03%.  

Asia shares was trading flat because over the weekend, there was not much news around the world. However, global economic growth concerns continue to linger over the market.

With FBMKLCI, FBM70, and FBMSCAP trading below the 50-100-200 moving averages, traders should stay out of KLCI and lower liners stocks. Conservativetraders should remain to stay aside while aggressive traders be selective on stocks to be traded. The stocks to watch for Tuesday are: AIRASIA, TM, UMW, REVENUE. Stock that have triggered sell: GCB.

All the best for a great Tuesday, but be cautious as the overall sentiment of our market is bearish.

Technical View FCPO 18.12.2018

• Lingering concern over higher end Dec stocks and bumper US and South American soybean production are undermining sentiment. 1-15 Dec exports reported by cargo surveyors, ITS and AmSpec, earlier were slightly negative but late high numbers by SGS were encouraging. Think prospect of higher prices are better in coming months with some forecast of stocks coming down from Jan.

• Technical view - The change in benchmark price to Mar position saw a big gap upwards. Will wait for further developments. Indicators remain positive.

• Recent breakout from the symmetrical triangle presents itself as a strong bearish signal.

• Sideways market since 13 Nov. Bullish if it is cross back up above the ascending line with neckline seen at 2135 to 2140 for March contract. Yesterday a failure to break > 2140 + a rejection, drop to a closing of 2121 poses itself as a potential short opportunity.

• Aim to sell higher price with target: 

1. TP 1: 2078
2. TP 2: 2005
3. TP 3: 1950

Disclaimer: This only for education purpose. Not a buy call or sell call from us.

Market Outlook 14.12.2018

Dear all,

The KLCI was up by 12.73 points or 0.77%to close at 1676. Losers led gainers by 397to 371while 1145 counters remain unchanged.

Volume was lower at RM1.6241 billion as compared to at RM1.7277 billion.

Former Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razakand Arul Kanda, Former CEO of 1MDB is facing trial to alleged tampering with audit report of 1MBD. Arul Kanda is facing charges for making changes to the 1MDB final audit report before the report was submitted to the Public Accounts committee.Despite this news, our market rallied with the positive global news on trade wars.

Asia market together with our local bourse rise to closed higher with optimistic trade talks. Donald Trump told during a telephone call with Beijing, he will not further raise tariff on China’s imports in an interview with Reuters. China as well have agreed to reduce tariff on automotive products and to purchase Soy Bean from US. Tensions between US and China have ease as both countries made efforts to negotiate a trade deal.

Europe and UK market gap up opened but traded lower since. UK Prime Minister Theresa May won confidence vote in her leadership of the Conservative Party. Theresa May won with 200 to 117 votes accounting to 63% of party support. Even though Theresa May passed this test, this has showed how her government is divided. More chaos is expected as British is test with Brexit.

All the best for a great Friday, but be extremely cautious as foreign and local news are bearish. Have a nice weekend! 😉

Technical View FCPO 14.12.2018

• Market closed higher after climbing to a 4-week high. Buying was tied to positive sentiments toward seasonal strength from lower production in Jan to Mar. Steadiness in China Dalian futures and CBT soyoil was supportive. Technical buy stops above 2050 magnified gains. Forward position from May 2019 was however slightly lower. Prices were 9 lower to 30 higher in the morning and rose to 35 higher in the afternoon before closing around mid range.

• Market is showing more positive sentiment. There is better inclination for support with expectations of production coming down in the coming months. The big discount of palm oil to soyoil and other vegetable oils is also supportive. However the high stocks remain a concern which kept nearby at big discount.

• Technical view - The break above 2050 is positive. Prices may move to 2150.

Disclaimer: This only for education purpose. Not a buy call or sell call from us.

Technical View FCPO 13.12.2018

• Market traded higher today on higher CBT soyoil and strong gains in crude mineral oil in Asian trade.Fresh sellers were lacking. Some reports of Malaysian government initiatives to support prices i.e. increase use for biodiesel, reduce imports etc were also supportive. Prices were 17 to 4 higher in the morning and rose to 26 higher in the afternoon.

• Market is generally sideways. Seasonal strength from declining production through Mar give better incentives for buying. However existing high supplies, with stocks likely to increase further in Dec, undermined sentiment. Market may continue to trend sideways with better upside prospects.

• Technical view - Prices continue to hold sideways in 2000 - 2050 range.

Disclaimer: This only for education purpose. Not a buy call or sell call from us.

Market Outlook 13.12.2018

Bursa Malaysia Trade Statistics


Foreign once again become a net buyer after long time be a net seller. This is a good sign for Malaysia market.

Dear all,

FBMKLCI ends its losing days streak to closed higher at 1663.27. Market was higher today with positive market breadth that is not seen for some time. The KLCI was up by 10.64 points or 0.64%. Gainers led losers by 394 to 371 while 1139 counters remain unchanged.

Volume was higher at RM1.7277 billion as compared to at RM1.4957 billion. FBMKLCI rebounded from support. Could this be a double bottom pattern? We will have to follow the development on the movement of the index. Nevertheless, our bias remains bearish.

Asian stocks performed well with the 3 major market closing green despite negative news around the world. Donald Trump threatened to shut down the government on Tuesday in a meeting with Democratic leaders. This has led to US Dow wiping outits earlier gain on the day to close lower.

Europe and UK market opened higher even though British faces political turmoil as Theresa May’s party triggered vote of no confidence vote on Theresa may. 48 politicians have indicated their loss of confidence on Theresa May, enough to trigger no confidence vote.

All the best for a great Thursday but be cautious as the overall sentiment of our market is bearish.

Donchian's 20 Guides to Trade Commodities

Dear all reader,

Are you a trader? If you are a trader, are you trade commodity? If yes, then this guide for all of you written by Richard D. Donchian in 1934 to help stock market trades.

Donchian is one of the most respected technicians on Wall Street especially in commodities. This guide is divide by two; General Guides and Technical Guides.

General Guides

1. Beware of acting immediately on widespread public opinion. Even if correct, it will usually delay the move.
2. From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.
3. LIMIT LOSSES
4. Light commitments are advisable when a market position is not certain to prevent unprofitable "whipsawing".
5. Seldom take a position in the direction of an immediately preceding three-day move. Wait for one-day reversal.
6. Judicious use of stop orders to protect profits, to limit losses and to take position.
7. In a market in which upswing are likely, a heavier position should be taken for the upswings for some reasons.
8. In taking a position, price orders are allowable. In closing position, use market orders.
9. Buy strong acting, strong background commodities and sell weak ones.
10. Moves in which rails (now the Transportation Index) lead or participate strongly are usually worth following more.
11. A study of the capitalization of a company is fully as important as a study of statistical reports.

Technical Guides

1. A move followed by a sideways range often precedes another move of almost equal extent n same direction as original move.
2. Reversal or resistance to a move is likely to be encountered on reaching levels at which the commodity has fluctuated for a considerable length of time within a narrow range in the past or on approaching previous high/low.
3. Watch for good buying or selling opportunities when trend lines are approached especially on medium or dull volume. Be sure such line has not been hugged or hit too frequent.
4. Watch for "crawling along" or repeated bumping of minor or major trend lines and prepare to see such trend lines broken.
5. Breaking of minor trend lines counter to the major trend gives most other important position-taking signals. Position can be taken or reversed on stops at such places.
6. Triangle of either slope may mean either accumulation or distribution, depending on other considerations, although triangles are usually broken on the flat side.
7. Watch for volume climax, especially after a long move.
8. Don't count on gaps being closed unless you can distinguish between breakaway gaps, normal gaps, and exhaustion gaps.
9. During a move, take take or increase positions in the direction of the move at the market.

Thats all for the tips for all commodities traders.

Thank you and hope all of you enjoy this! Do you have any other guidelines or tips? Please share at comment section 😊

Gold : Short or Long? Analysis on 12.12.2018

Gold in Monthly Chart

Gold in Weekly Chart

Gold in Daily Chart

Gold in Hourly Chart

Gold is one of the interesting commodity that can be traded. If you already traded gold for a long time, you already know gold is really connected with the movement of USD. Gold can be count as one of the volatile commodity.

Today, I like to share my point of view for gold based on three times frame which is:

• Long
• Medium
• Short

For the long time frame, I go based on monthly and weekly charts. We can see gold move on sideway for long time frame if we can see the weekly and monthly charts. I expected that gold will move sideway for three to four years and not so affected by incoming Trade War or Economy Crisis.

For Medium, I can see the broken downtrend maybe only for short time. I expect the gold to go lower for Medium time frame and this likely will happen for next year for the whole year.

For Short time frame, I will go for the bullish based on the strong uptrend for hourly chart. Gold likely will increase until end of this year.

For the all reader, if you are a intraday trader or aggressive trader, this is he time for you to long and take a profit.

Goodluck!

Index Analysis 12.12.2018 : DAX (Europe Market)

DAX looks not so good with current downtrend.

We expect the current downtrend will continue to hit our target 10400 points for this week.

As we can see from charts, currently the price is below EMA 5 and EMA 21 with RSI at 35.5785.

Short is the only answer for this index for this week if you trade this index with target 10400 points based on Psychological Support point.

 Disclaimer: This only for education purpose. Not a buy call or sell call from us.

Stock Analysis 12.12.2018 : Apple Inc (AAPL, NASDAQ, US Market)

Apple Inc currently in downtrend start from early October 2018.

For yesterday, Apple Inc recorded red colour with open at 171.50 points and close at 168.63 points.

We expect that Apple Inc will rebound and go to 190.16 points (0.382 Fibonacci Retracement) for this week.

RSI also indicate that this share almost hit the 'oversold' point with current at 32.8125

We advise our reader to be careful with the downtrend of this share although we target this price will go up to 190.16 points.

 Disclaimer: This only for education purpose. Not a buy call or sell call from us.

Market Outlook 12.12.2018

Dear all,

FBMKLCI ends lower for 6th consecutive day. Our local bourse ended at the intraday low at 1652.63. The KLCI was down by 10.68 points or 0.64%. Losers outweighs gainers by 549 to 253 while 1102 counters remain unchanged.

Volume was higher at RM1.4957 billion as compared to at RM1.3461 billion.

Last night, US Dow started their trading in the negative territory to drop to an intraday low of 23886 and rebounded to close high. Price failed to close below the support and form a hammer. Technical rebounded is expected but we are still bearish.

Europe market trade higher since market open. At time of writing, most of the indices are trading 1% higher. Market regain investors confidence as there were new updates of US-China trade talks.

On Tuesday morning, China reported to have talked on the telephone with US Trade Representative. However, British Prime Minister Theresa May postponed the parliamentary vote on her Brexit Deal. Much uncertainty will be caused with EU refusing to renegotiate a new deal.

For our Asia market closes with mix reactions. Hang Seng and China closed positive, as for Japan, Nikkei closed red. As for our local bourse, it closed bearish. With our local negative news, market sentiment continues to weaken.

Tabung Haji is said to be paying dividends illegally by taking depositors money instead of gaining from investment. However, Former Tabung Haji Chairman denied and accuse this news as misleading the public. With more than Rm70 billion fund under Tabung Haji, this news will put pressures on our local stock market.

All the best for a great Wednesday but be cautious as the overall sentiment of our market is bearish.

FCPO EW Analysis 12.12.2018

• Recent bullish momentum was short lived after FCPO failed to break the 2055 - 2060 zone. As of now, FCPO seems to trade within a contracting triangle. Our primary projection of an expanded triangle looks bleak, but valid nonetheless. 

• With no fundamental element to entice market to climb higher, the last bullish leg (wave c of (e)) of the expanding triangle is likely to develop under the pretext of contract roll over. 

• It holds true, if and only if, FCPO is traded until the end of this week within the range, bound by the upper and lower lines of the converging triangle. 

• That being said, it is essentially important to note that a symmetrical contracting triangle is a continuation pattern, so a strong bearish momentum can fully develop right off the bat.   

• We will take a closer look at the following area as market unfolds.

• Daily Target: 1965 - 1970

Disclaimer: This only for education purpose. Not a buy call or sell call from us.

Technical View FCPO 12.12.2018

• Market closed lower after trading within previous day's range. Selling was prompted by weaker China Dalian futures and the lack of fresh supporting factors. Big drop in crude mineral oil price also undermined sentiment. Ringgit weakened about 0.3 pct but had little effect. Prices were 16 to 40 lower in the morning and remained weak in the afternoon 

• There are concerns that supplies will increase further in Dec with some forecasts of higher end Dec stocks. Bullish factors are also lacking which gave ideas that market is not yet set for an up trend. However seasonally low production in Jan - Mar and prospect of increase use for biodiesel are likely to keep market supported at current relatively low levels.

• Technical view - Prices maintaining the sideway trading range of 1950 - 2050

Disclaimer: This only for education purpose. Not a buy call or sell call from us.

Introduction

Dear all readers,

Hi, I will write about technical analysis everyday basically about Malaysia market (stock, futures) and also maybe little bit about other market.

I will also write about summary of Malaysia stock market everyday and hope all of you can get benefit from this blog.

For those who interested to open the account, I already put the number/link at my blog.

Enjoy reading!